“One ought, every day at least, to hear a little song, read a good poem, see a fine picture, and, if it were possible, to speak a few reasonable words.” — Goethe
Instead, we get this:
TGIF: Maria Bartiromo, whose career trajectory took her from “Money Honey,” to Fox News fabulist and Trump fluffer, was unceremoniously fired Thursday, opening the door for her to compete for the position now assumed by Natalie Harp.
In related personnel news, “Lori Chavez-DeRemer, ex-labor secretary, drank on job and misused funds, report finds.” A federal watchdog says that Trump’s former labor secretary oversaw a “toxic, intimidating and humiliating” work environment, so it is something of a mystery that she has not yet been named Secretary of Defense.
Meanwhile, with just 60 days before the midterms, the president — laser-focused on the needs of average Americans — announces that he’ll begin work on his colossal Arch of Triumph, Victory, Endless Neediness within the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, don’t miss this gem: “GOP candidate for Missouri House charged with conspiring to plant cocaine on opponent.” And with the election just days away, the Administration is asking the Supreme Court to allow it to move ahead with its plan to sow chaos in mail-in voting.
The administration’s emergency appeal to the justices came hours after a federal judge in Massachusetts, during a hearing in the matter, expressed concerns that the plans could cause so much chaos in the coming elections that states would experience “major disenfranchisement.” Judge Indira Talwani had imposed a temporary block on the plan, which the administration had already appealed.
Rather than allow that legal process to play out, the administration is now taking the highly unusual step of trying to skip ahead and get immediate intervention from the Supreme Court.
Once again, it’s important to be clear about what is happening here:
Trump wants fewer people to vote; he wants to make it harder for people to vote; he wants to spread confusion and fear among election officials; and he wants to spread doubt about the results of any election he loses.
In other words, whether Trump ultimately wins or loses in court, he has sown chaos. And the chaos is very much the point.
How much chaos? Nationwide, nearly a third of all votes are cast by mail, but in some states the proportion is much higher: (Via the NYT)
NOTE: This is not the time to turn away. None of this is normal. Which is why I do this every day. If this work matters to you — and if you think it has some value — please consider joining us.
Cornell Profs: “Midterm forecast strongly favors Democrats to win House majority”
The zone is flooded with predictions, but these guys have gotten it right before, so….
Democrats have an 8 in 10 chance of securing a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this fall, according to Cornell political scientists whose model has correctly predicted winners of the previous 14 congressional elections.
Released Sept. 3 at the American Political Science Association (APSA) annual meeting in Boston, the researchers’ midterm forecast – based on data collected at least 100 days before the Nov. 3 election – anticipates Democrats winning approximately 226 seats to Republicans’ 209 (though simulations show as few as 206 Democratic seats or as many as 258 are statistical possibilities). A U.S. Senate forecast is in progress.
“These forecasts aren’t deterministic – there is uncertainty,” said Peter K. Enns, professor in the Department of Government in the College of Arts and Sciences and in the Cornell Brooks School of Public Policy. “But given our model’s impressive historical accuracy, if Republicans hold the House, it likely means either everything has gone their way or something unprecedented has happened.”…
Forecasting recent presidential elections, Enns in 2024 predicted the correct outcome in every state and Donald Trump’s Electoral College tally, and in 2020 called the winner in all but one state (Georgia). The House forecast differs from most academic models by predicting outcomes for all 435 congressional districts – updated to reflect recent redistricting – rather than relying solely on state- and national-level indicators.
A centrist pivot in Iowa
I feel this really ought to be part of a continuing series. Contra the media fixation on the left-wing/DSA insurgency, there are stories all across the country of Democrats and Independents finding a third way — and giving the GOP the willies. Let’s start with Iowa, where The Atlantic recently reported: “[Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate] Rob Sand Has Figured Something Out.”
National Democrats like what they see—even if they find it tough to describe. Sand “is doing the opposite of what almost every other politician is doing,” the strategist and former Pete Buttigieg adviser Lis Smith told me. He isn’t a loud progressive, but he also doesn’t sound like a corporate moderate, Adam Carlson, a pollster, agreed. “Sand is doing a third thing.”
…
It helps that Sand does not behave like most Democrats. He is not, for example, easily drawn into culture-war debates or bandwagon slogans. Early in his campaign when a radio host asked him whether biological males should be allowed to play in women’s sports, Sand answered succinctly, “No.” ….
“He’s taken some of the cultural issues that dog Democrats in red states off the table,” Adam Jentleson, the founder of the center-left think tank Searchlight, told me.
This means that Sand is willing to take positions on issues that poll around 80-20, but are anathema to the orthodox left. In an interview with Politico's Jonathan Martin, Sand said: I just think girls' sports are for girls and boys' sports are for boys," while decrying members of his own party who are "much more focused on other cultural stuff."
Despite the GOP’s huge advantage in Iowa, recent polling has shown Sand narrowly leading his Republican opponent 48% to 44%.
BONUS: In sharp contrast, this is not likely to end well: “‘F**k you…hurry up and die’: Swing-seat Democratic House candidate’s deleted tweets show far-left record” — CNN
William Lawrence, the Democratic nominee in one of the country’s most competitive House races in Michigan, deleted hundreds of old social media posts in which he embraced police and prison abolition, called for nationalizing fossil-fuel companies to end their production, attacked moderate Democrats and argued for a “fundamental overhaul” of the Constitution.
Other deleted posts show Lawrence writing “f**k” the nuclear-family home and calling it an “isolating, individualistic, violent way of organizing society,” envisioning “a world of free and open migration,” and calling to “Abolish the Senate.”
FFS.
Meanwhile, it’s still the economy, stupid…
A snapshot of headlines from yesterday’s NYT:
Friday dogs
We had very loud thunderstorms last night and this morning, and the dogs are quite upset. But we’ve discovered that they really love it when my wife plays the piano, and both of them rush into the living room during the storms when she begins to play. So, at 2 a.m., amid booming thunder, I woke to sounds of Beethoven… which Eli enjoyed very much. (Although the storms are continuing and both Eli and Auggie are hiding under my desk… where Eli has now twice unplugged everything.)
You realize we're going to want a snippet of piano-thunderstorm concert footage?
“But given our model’s impressive historical accuracy, if Republicans hold the House, it likely means either everything has gone their way or something unprecedented has happened.”
Something unprecedented? You mean, like a vindictive, sociopathic fascist bent on destroying our electoral system residing in the White House? That kind of unprecedented?