The Art of the Botched Deal

Plus: Dems win big in Virginia. Sort of.

Old man yelling.

As we ponder this latest TACO du jour, it’s worth revisiting this CNN report from a few days ago. “A deal to end the Iran war seemed close. Then Trump started posting on social media.” Last weekend, negotiators thought they were making progress to end the seven-week war.

Then Trump began bleating.

To the surprise of precisely no one who has been watching Trump over the years, the president “did exactly what his staffers have repeatedly said they wouldn’t do: He seemed to try negotiating via the press, posting about ongoing talks on social media and speaking to several reporters by phone Friday morning as Pakistani intermediaries updated him on ongoing talks with Iranian officials in Tehran.”

And much of what he said bore no relation to reality.

He claimed Iran had agreed to a host of provisions that sources familiar with the talks said have not yet been finalized. He also asserted that Tehran had agreed to many of the most contentious US demands — including handing over the enriched uranium — and declared an imminent end to the war.

You all know the result: Iranian officials refuted Trump’s assertions “and denied they were preparing for another round of talks, rapidly tanking the rising optimism for a deal.”

So today, JD Vance is grounded and the peace talks have been shelved. But — after once again promising to bomb power plants and bridges — Trump blinked again and extended the ceasefire.

Which is a good thing, even though the whole incident exposed in the most garish manner possible the fact that the man in the White House is undisciplined, erratic, confused, and utterly not to be trusted.

Meanwhile: “Iranian Forces Claim Seizure of 2 Ships Near Strait of Hormuz After Trump Extends Cease-Fire.” So, I think it is safe to say that Trump’s War is not, in fact, “going swimmingly.”

Happy Wednesday.

The Virginia Model

“An eye for an eye,” Mahatma Gandhi once noted, “only ends up making the whole world blind.”

That reminds us of two things: (1) A culture of retaliation often ends up badly, (2) Gandhi would not have made a good political strategist in 2026.

**

Last night’s redistricting vote in Viginia is a BFD because it could determine which party controls Congress next year. Democrats are rightly ebullient today. They are considered likely to add four seats. (The state Supreme Court, however, could still weigh in.)

But it is important to keep a few thoughts in our heads at the same time:

• Trump launched this war when he pushed Texas to rig the midterm maps.

• Much like his war on Iran, Trump thought this would be a cheap, easy victory. And, in a reminder that he is not a chess player, he did not anticipate the next moves.

• Democrats did not go peacefully into that rigged election but pushed back in dramatic fashion.

• The Democratic pushback was cynical (given their opposition to gerrymandering), but it was also both smart and essential. If MAGA poses an existential threat, then turning the other cheek was not a viable option.

• As a result, it now looks like Trump’s gerrymandering gambit has backfired. By some estimates, Democrats are poised to pick up even more seats than the GOP after the redistricting wars are over. (Caveat again: the courts may change the calculations somewhat.)¹

• But…

• It’s also important to note that this exigency of political warfare — an eye for an eye; a gerrymander for a gerrymander — is not a virtuous cycle. It’s may be a necessary race, but it is a race to the bottom, nevertheless. At the moment, everybody now loves gerrymandering, even the folks who genuinely hate it.

• And this is the larger danger: We are likely to see this pattern repeated, because in all-out political war, principles will be seen as luxuries.

• Attention now turns to Florida, which also intends to rig its districts to benefit the GOP. And in retaliation… TBD.

Do not misunderstand my point here. Democrats did what they had to do. If I lived in Virginia, I would have voted yes. I’m glad it passed. But we also should recognize that victories like this come at a price that we may regret in future years.

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger says that the referendum was “a temporary and responsive step of doing this one-time redistricting,” and that “long term,” the state would go back to its bipartisan redistricting commission after the 2030 census.

Maybe. We’ll see. Unfortunately, “one-time” gimmicks tend to be habit-forming in our political culture.

Exit take: Maybe the gerrymandering fiascos of 2026 will lead to much-needed reform. But maybe Gandhi was right, and we all end up staggering blindly from one fight to another.

Nota bene

Yes, we’ve noticed. Via the NYT:

The 119th Congress is a mess. Partisan gridlock strangles both houses even though Republicans hold thin majorities. Misconduct scandal after misconduct scandal keeps a bad light shining on the Hill.

**

Ethan Wolf (former communications director for Rep. Tom Suozzi D-NY and founder of Democratic Wins Media) writes in the Wapo: “Hasan Piker isn’t a risk worth taking for Democrats.”

[The] downside of associating with him is significant. The internet personality has described Orthodox Jews as “inbred,” said “America deserved 9/11,” asserted “Hamas a thousand times better” than Israel and called the collapse of the Soviet Union “one of the greatest catastrophes of the 20th century.” In a podcast interview with a former Obama speechwriter last week, he called the Republican Party the “biggest terrorist internationally.” Other Democrats have openly rejected his views. Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres (New York) called Piker “the poster child for the post-October 7th outbreak of antisemitism in America.”…

Democrats who want the party to engage with Piker portray this as an acceptable risk. They suggest that there are more disaffected voters in Piker’s audience than would be lost in the center of the political spectrum. But that theory has been tried and tested. It has failed.

According to polling from Global Strategy Group and Third Way, 35 percent of the American electorate identifies as conservative, 23 percent as liberal and 42 percent as moderate. A September 2024 New York Times-Siena poll found that 47 percent of likely voters viewed Harris as “too liberal,” while only 32 percent said Trump was “too conservative.” Democrats may dislike those perceptions. But successful parties do not get to campaign against the electorate they wish they had; they have to persuade the one that exists.

The voters Democrats need most are those in the middle who worry the party has drifted too far left. Mixing Piker into the coalition merely confirms that fear.

BONUS: I posted this yesterday. The blowback/comments were… revealing.

The host of The Kyle Kulinski Show offered this thoughtful response:

Charlie, your geriatric ass hasn't watched a single second of Hasan outside of the out of context smear job clips. [Ed. note. Actually I have. And it’s horrible.] Go back to the nursing home and watch your re-runs of murder she wrote and sip your prune juice.

He seems nice. But he wasn’t alone. Lots of GFY, and STFU from the Big Tent Left. Like the artist known as “crazer,” who thinks it’s time for folks like me to “go away” to make room for the Brave New World of the youngs:

boomer politics is dead af, no matter how hard you want to cling to it and try to pressure podcasters to continue it.
you all had your way for the past 50 years, only to get us to where we are right now.
time to stfu and go away so young people can fix what you broke.

And on it went, with one “progressive” offering this bit of sage advice:

Memo to Charlie Sykes: read the comments on your tweet and understand us Dems are telling you to GFY.

Exit take: I’m feeling a bit of déjà vu here, because this seems highly reminiscent of the sort of thing I used to get from the supporters of another populist demagogue, who had his own army of flying monkeys on social media.

Ironic, I know.

ICYMI

My livestream with Alex Wagner…

My livestream with Ben Cohen from Banter

Wednesday dogs

Auggie posing for his morning portrait.

1. Via the Wapo:

The push resulted in better lines for the GOP in five districts in Texas, two in Ohio and one each in Missouri and North Carolina. Democrats responded by persuading voters to approve new maps that would give Democrats the edge in five seats in California and four in Virginia. In addition, a court approved a new map in Utah that could give Democrats one district.