The Fire (Flood/Pandemic/Disaster) Next Time
When we see everything through a lens of loyalty and loathing.
Lord, what lies ahead? What does the future hold? Can you show us a sign?
God: I showed you Los Angeles.
This is our Apocalypse Now; and it is headed into its second week. God help us.
The tragic losses are, of course, sufficient unto themselves. But what is genuinely terrifying is that it may also be a template of what lies ahead.
It’s Sunday.
To the Contrary is a reader-supported publication. You may disagree with me from time to time (and I expect you will, because I’m not promising you a safe space here). But I’ll always try to give it to you straight.
Nota Bene: The knee-bending by billionaire media moguls and the enshittification of social media by the broligarchs has transformed the media landscape... and made independent outlets like Substack more vital than ever.
Please consider supporting us.
To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. (And I’m immensely grateful for your generous support.)
Next?
There once was a time when a disaster of this magnitude would bring us together. Even if the unity was short-lived, Americans would put aside their partisan differences and pull together in a common cause. Let’s not overly romanticize the past, but it is worth remembering that crises once brought out our best selves.
But now, we get the finger pointing, explosions of disinformation, vindictive threats, and partisan point scoring. We see everything through the lens of loyalty and loathing.
Ideologues seize on singularly sensational explanations that are conveniently aligned with their ideological preconceptions, no matter how irrelevant or absurd. Back in November, Tucker Carlson blamed a devastating hurricane on… abortion.
**
What’s happening in LA puts all of this ugliness into stark relief.
As the NYT notes, the raging fires are “the kind of devastation that, in a bygone era, might have prompted at least a temporary political cease-fire and pledges to work across the aisle to rebuild, even as the authorities face legitimate questions about their handling of the crisis.”
Instead, with 10 days until Trump’s second inauguration, he offered a reminder of how he has long used disasters to damage political opponents like Gov. Gavin Newsom, Democrat of California — even when they’re still going on.
As the disaster unfolded, Trump “did not use his social media site to pledge support to emergency responders or offer words of compassion to a city where thousands of people have lost everything.”
Instead, President-elect Donald Trump used his megaphone to tell the world who was at fault.
It wasn’t the Santa Ana winds, nor was it the rising temperatures that have dried out vegetation and made fires harder to extinguish.
The culprit, he wrote, was “Gavin Newscum.”
Trump is (once again) threatening to use the tragedy as a cudgel to retaliate against his enemies. Politico reports:
Trump has repeatedly warned Newsom that if he doesn’t submit to his demands on water delivery and forest management, he will withhold federal dollars. “If he doesn’t sign those papers, we won’t give him money to put out all his fires, and if we don’t give him the money to put out his fires, he’s got problems,” Trump said in September…
**
Meanwhile, the firehose of disinformation, conspiracy theories, and contumelious insult erupted. Elon Musk fired up the right-wing ecosystem with his patented brand of bullshit and bigotry.
Musk has posted or replied to more than 80 posts about the fire, many of which pinned the devastation on liberal policies, in some cases based on false claims or racist ideas, according to a Washington Post analysis.
By now, this has become a darkly familiar pattern. After a hurricane devastated North Carolina and Georgia, and after a terror attack in New Orleans, the world’s richest man, and the next president became vectors of dangerous disinformation and political vindictiveness.
**
So, what happens next time?
And there will be a next time.
There will be more wildfires, hurricanes, and earthquakes. There will be more mass shootings and terror attacks. Who knows what else? Meteors? Nuclear accidents?
We can be sure that there will be more pandemics, perhaps far more deadly that Covid.
What we no longer know is this: Are we going to be able to handle them? How will we respond next time?
In the Age of Musk and Trump how will we address climate change? How will a health system run by RFK Jr handle the next deadly epidemic? What will it mean to have a FEMA that has to answer to Charlie Kirk and Don Jr.? How safe will we be with a Defense Department run by a dipsomaniacal chode?
What happens now that the taps of fakery and conspiracism have been smashed wide open by our social media oligarchs?
**
As we are seeing in LA, the rot goes deep.
In his Substack newsletter, Steve Schmidt reminds us that competent governance matters — at every level.
Donald Trump is far from the only fool that the American people routinely elect. Here’s the deal: if the people of Florida want Matt Gaetz on the bridge for the world’s first category 6 hurricane, they can make that choice.
The people of LA chose a AAA-mediocrity and world-class hack to be the person to deal with chaos and disaster. Now, it has come and there is no water.
Indeed, LA’s mayor Karen Bass is presiding over a clusterfuck of epic proportions. And it is not just conservatives who are raising questions about her judgment and competence. As the fires gathered momentum, she was out of the country —in Ghana — and when she returned, she stood mutely as a reporter peppered her with questions about her absence from the city during the crisis.
Writes Schmidt: “Karen Bass had a job, and in the days leading up to a crisis that makes the L.A. riots look like a minor disturbance, she chose to be on the other side of the world.”
One of the harshest indictments came from her own fire chief.
Kristin Crowley, a 22-year veteran of the department, said that the City of Los Angeles failed its over 100,000 displaced residents who were forced to evacuate from the ongoing wildfire siege.
When asked by Fox News's affiliate, KTTV, if the City of Los Angeles, and its Mayor Karen Bass failed the city, Crowley replied: "Yes."
When a firefighter comes up to a hydrant, we expect there's going to be water. We don't control the water supply. We're there to protect lives and property.
She said her firefighters 'did absolutely everything they could do to rescue and save people's lives and property.’
(On Friday, officials denied reports that an angry Mayor Bass had fired Crowley for her comments.)
**
Bass’s supporters — and they are swarming on Bluesky — downplay the reports about the lack of water, insisting that no city would have had enough water to fight fires of this magnitude, and that the empty reservoir wouldn’t have made a difference anyway. But this is why bubbles are so dangerous: If you don’t figure out how you screwed up last time, you are unlikely to figure out how to avoid screwing up the next time.
Governor Newsom is demanding answers. “Newsom orders probe into why Pacific Palisades reservoir was offline during fires - Los Angeles Times”
“I am calling for an independent investigation into the loss of water pressure to local fire hydrants and the reported unavailability of water supplies from the Santa Ynez Reservoir," Newsom wrote. "We need answers to ensure this does not happen again and we have every resource available to fight these catastrophic fires."
**
Raising questions about the competence of California officials is not “both sidesism” because as veteran journalist Ron Fournier reminds us:
Two things can be true:
An independent-minded, curious person would be open to possibility that the Los Angeles fires are the latest example of an existential threat to the globe AND the latest example of government incompetence.
Such a person would embrace the warnings of scientists AND raise questions about governments’ response.
Two other things can also be true:
1. The Trump/Musk demagoguery is sick and dangerous, and 2. Good faith criticism and investigations of local officials will be justified — after the fires are out.
**
So, this brings us back to the central question: What happens next time? Do we still have the capacity to rise to the occasion? Or are we seeing it destroyed in real time?
Do we have the will, the ability — or even the interest in — confronting the next crisis or preventing it?
Or will it simply be turned into a pretext for vengeance, cruelty, and authoritarian overreach?
More fundamentally: Is Los Angeles a cautionary tale?
Or an omen?
A word from our readers
Your Sunday dogs
For anyone doubting that sweet Pete was actually the alpha to Moses:
Allow me to weigh in from LA, where my stepson and his family were burned out of their home and watched not just their home but the entire community that they love go up in flames. My 1st grade grandson's school is gone and virtually every one of the 10 kids in his class has lost his/her home. All schools gone. All churches gone. Both grocery stores gone. Library, downtown, complete neighborhoods - all gone. There is virtually nothing left and it looks like the aftermath of a nuclear holocaust.
They're squeezed into our little spare room with all of their possessions filling a few drawers. We're less than a mile from the evacuation warning zones with high winds about to kick up this week so we are still in a perilous situation. I've got my stuff packed and ready to go if the winds blow this way. If the fire crosses into West LA, we are looking at a disaster the likes of which is hard to comprehend.
And the right wing is gleeful, chortling over the deep pain being suffered by those they presume are "libs", thinking of ways to deny LA aid, punish LA by taking away the Olympics and other such demonstration of dark and damaged souls. And I challenge them to point to a disaster in a red state where Democrats reacted with anything but compassion and concern. Sorry, but these are some sick fucks.
Seems to me that the reaction to the fires is yet another example that “THE CRUELTY IS THE POINT”. There is no apparent bottom to not pledging complete and total fealty. 😢 Thanks for continuing to fearlessly call this out.