"All governments suffer a recurring problem: Power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible. Such people have a tendency to become drunk on violence, a condition to which they are quickly addicted." — Frank Herbert.
In today’s newsletter:
Will the courts let Trump militarize law enforcement? (My conversation with Talking Feds’ Harry Litman)
Wapo: Trump White House opens door to historic military deployment on U.S. soil
Happy Thursday.
This is not a rehearsal. This is all happening right now. This is the story of our lifetime and the challenge of our generation. If you think the fight for sanity, democracy, and the rule of law is worth it, please consider supporting us. Because we can’t do this without you.
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Trump’s crappy poll
I believe the technical term is ugly with hair on it.
The new Quinnipiac Poll has Trump’s approval rating at 38 percent, and suggests strong and deep opposition to his Big Beautiful Bill. Only 67% of Republicans support it. Trump is underwater on every major issue, including his handling of the Russia - Ukraine War, which is among his lowest rated issues.
Other highlights:
Immigration issues: 43 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove, with 3 percent not offering an opinion;
Deportations: 40 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;
The economy: 40 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;
Trade: 38 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove, with 6 percent not offering an opinion;
Universities: 37 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove, with 9 percent not offering an opinion;
The Israel - Hamas conflict: 35 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove, with 13 percent not offering an opinion;
The Russia - Ukraine war: 34 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
Newsom’s Moment
As I mentioned on today’s podcast, I consider myself a Newsom Skeptic. I often find him much of a muchness: thirsty, opportunistic, and more than than a tad unctuous. The presidential ambition fairly oozes.
But skepticism does not mean that I’m unwilling to acknowledge that the California governor “met the moment” (I apologize for the pundit-speak) the other night. Of course, things can still go south, and it’s not completely clear that Democrats fully grasp the risks posed by images of violence. (Ruy Teixeira has a scathing critique here.)
But attention ought to be paid, nevertheless: “Newsom Says Trump Is Destroying U.S. Democracy in Speech on L.A. Protests.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom made the case in a televised address Tuesday evening that President Trump’s decision to send military forces to immigration protests in Los Angeles has put the nation at the precipice of authoritarianism.
The California governor urged Americans to stand up to Mr. Trump, calling it a “perilous moment” for democracy and the country’s long-held legal norms.
“California may be first, but it clearly won’t end here,” Mr. Newsom said, speaking to cameras from a studio in Los Angeles. “Other states are next. Democracy is next.”
“Democracy is under assault right before our eyes — the moment we’ve feared has arrived,” he added.
Watch California Gov. Gavin Newsom's full speech on federal response to Los Angeles protests.
You can read the full transcript here. A couple of notable excerpts:
I ask everyone: Take time, reflect on this perilous moment. A president who wants to be bound by no law or constitution, perpetuating a unified assault on American traditions.
This is a president who, in just over 140 days, has fired government watchdogs that could hold him accountable, accountable for corruption and fraud. He’s declared a war, a war on culture, on history, on science, on knowledge itself. Databases quite literally are vanishing.
He’s delegitimizing news organizations and he’s assaulting the First Amendment. And the threat of defunding them. At threat, he’s dictating what universities themselves can teach. He’s targeting law firms and the judicial branch that are the foundations of an orderly and civil society. He’s calling for a sitting governor to be arrested for no other reason than to, in his own words, “for getting elected.”
And we all know, this Saturday, he’s ordering our American heroes, the United States military, and forcing them to put on a vulgar display to celebrate his birthday, just as other failed dictators have done in the past.
Look, this isn’t just about protests here in Los Angeles. When Donald Trump sought blanket authority to commandeer the National Guard. he made that order apply to every state in this nation.
This is about all of us. This is about you. California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next.
Democracy is next.
Democracy is under assault right before our eyes, this moment we have feared has arrived. He’s taking a wrecking ball, a wrecking ball to our founding fathers’ historic project: three coequal branches of independent government.
There are no longer any checks and balances. Congress is nowhere to be found. Speaker Johnson has completely abdicated that responsibility.
The rule of law has increasingly been given way to the rule of Don.
The founding fathers didn’t live and die to see this kind of moment. It’s time for all of us to stand up. Justice Brandeis, he said it best. In a democracy, the most important office — with all due respect, Mr. President — is not the presidency, and it’s certainly not governor. The most important office is office of citizen.
At this moment, at this moment, we all need to stand up and be held to account, a higher level of accountability. If you exercise your First Amendment rights, please, please do it peacefully.
I know many of you are feeling deep anxiety, stress, and fear. But I want you to know that you are the antidote to that fear and that anxiety. What Donald Trump wants most is your fealty, your silence, to be complicit in this moment.
Do not give into him.
Harry Litman: Trump, the Troops, and the Threat to Democracy
On today’s “To the Contrary” Podcast, I’m joined by the Talking Feds’ Harry Litman for a sobering conversation about Trump's latest maneuvers to militarize immigration enforcement—and what it signals for the future of American democracy. From the potential invocation of the Insurrection Act to the silence of military leadership, we explore how far Trump might go and whether any meaningful guardrails remain.
And Litman addresses the key question; Will the courts let him get away it?
Some highlights (I’ll post the full video later today):
Subscribers can listen to an ad-free version right here… or you can watch on YouTube / Listen (and subscribe) on Apple/ Spotify / iHeart / RSS Feed.
Nota bene
David Ignatius: "Trump is exploiting Democrats’ immigration failures - The Washington Post
Democrats have gotten the border issue so wrong, for so long, that it amounts to political malpractice. The latest chapter—in which violent protesters could be helping President Donald Trump create a military confrontation he’s almost begging for as a distraction from his other problems—may prove the most dangerous yet.
When I see activists carrying Mexican flags as they challenge ICE raids in Los Angeles this week, I think of two possibilities: These “protesters” are deliberately working to create visuals that will help Trump, or they are well-meaning but unwise dissenters who are inadvertently accomplishing the same goal.
Democrats’ mistake, over more than a decade, has been to behave as though border enforcement doesn’t matter. Pressured by immigrant rights activists, party leaders too often acted as if maintaining a well-controlled border was somehow morally wrong. Again and again, the short-term political interests of Democratic leaders in responding to a strong faction within the party won out over having a policy that could appeal to the country as a whole.
Trump’s China “Deal”: AYFKM?
I defer to economist Justin Wolfers on the latest non-deal deal in Trump’s endless trade war. He explained:
The US & Chinese trade negotiators have negotiated a handshake agreement to seek signoff to agree that a previously-agreed agreement is still their agreed upon agreement.
(That agreement is not an agreement but a framework for seeking future agreements.)
Wolfers summarizes the timeline:
Jan 20: US wants a better deal
Feb: Fentanyl tariffs, retaliation, escalation, etc
Apr 2: "Reciprocal tariffs" Retaliation, escalation, etc
Apr 9: Pause (except China)
May 12 talks: De-escalate to April 1
June: You cheated! No you did!
June 10 talks: Let's get back to May 12
In other words:
Notice that not only are we not getting a better deal, we're not even getting back to where we were at the start of the Administration.
BONUS:
**
ICYMI:
O Canada!
According to multiple 2025 polls:
74% of Canadians disapprove of Donald Trump
Only 13% view him favorably
Among Conservative voters? Only 27% are supportive — and 60% are not.
Even more telling: 27% of all Canadians now describe the U.S. as an enemy power. That’s not just about Trump. That’s about what his leadership says to Canadians about America’s future
**
Blundell also highlights a recent interview with Canada’s PM, Mark Carney:
Carney made it known that Canada’s future won’t be brokered behind closed doors in Washington or dictated by a tantrum-prone former president who is more interested in ruling than leading. In his clearest and most urgent address to date, Mark Carney — economist, statesman, and now Canada’s diplomatic battering ram — made it plain: Donald Trump’s America is not our shield anymore. And it’s becoming a threat.
Carney didn’t pull punches when calling out what he called the “monetization of American hegemony.” In other words, Trump’s America First foreign policy has become America For Sale. The U.S. no longer underwrites collective defense or multilateralism out of principle — it now demands payment, loyalty, and obedience. That’s not an ally. That’s a racket.
This is the most damning public critique of American leadership from a Canadian leader in decades — and it’s aimed straight at Trump, his regime, and the MAGA movement hijacking U.S. foreign policy. Carney’s message? Canada doesn’t do protection rackets.
Thursday dogs
Morning boys.
I’m afraid I can’t agree that the Democrats on immigration have been an abject failure! There was that bipartisan bill that Trump scuttled because he wanted immigration as an issue. That would’ve been good and it was bipartisan. Biden did deport many people, but tried tostrike some kind of a balance I think. The dreamers and all of that. So I’m not sure they got it 100% wrong all of the time. Of course the media megaphone never recognized all the positive things he did do about immigration.
Essentially reposting my comment from Morning Shots today, as it is relevant here too and there's no need to reinvent the wheel -- apologies to those who have seen it already.
The Quinnipiac poll is nice eye candy but ultimately inconsequential. If we are waiting for public opinion to curb, restrain, or change the worst excesses of the new administration, it is a fool's errand. Those in the new regime do not care what others think, even within their own tribe. They believe, and to a large extent know, that if they keep on doing what they seek to accomplish, eventually their base not only will cave in to their agenda but also will adopt their talking points and become messengers as well as converts. They realize that they have a very compliant base. They are aware that the hard ground was softened up decades ago, by right wing talk radio and other outlets that created a permission structure, that owning the libs became the highest possible goal, and all done in service to it was not only righteous, but also necessary. As long as they mix into their harmful agenda a certain amount of anti-Biden and anti-American and anti-liberal rhetoric to justify themselves, they are good to go.
It hardly bears repeating, as you know this already, but for the record: the downturn of our shared society into a cesspool of unfiltered autocracy did not take place solely with the arrival of DJT. It has been decades in the making, fomented by bad actors acting in bad faith on the political right and with a big assist from our foreign enemies and their disinformation campaigns. They all counted on tens of millions of everyday Americans being too stupid and shallow and intellectually lazy for their own good. And they were right. Now they are being shown the payoff. Don't expect any letup on their part as they reap the rewards of betting that eating America from the bottom up would make for a great meal.