The Orange Man in Winter

An angry, sulking president lashes out.

Depending on your persuasion, the Knicks’ comeback from 29 points down last night to win Game 4 of the NBA Finals was the result of (1) Divine Intervention, or (2) the presence of Taylor Swift, who broke The Curse. (There may be alternative explanations, which I will consider as I watch the highlight reel on a loop this morning.)

Unfortunately, Donald J. Trump — who was notably absent from the game — had a much worse day.

Happy Thursday.

To the Contrary is a reader-supported publication. You may disagree with me from time to time (and I expect you will, because I’m not promising you a safe space here).

But I’ll always try to give it to you straight.

To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

“I Love the Inflation”

We’ll come back in a moment to Trump’s latest contribution to the “Greatest Moments in Presidential Rhetoric.”

But, remarkably, his comment was not the low point of his day. As we are seeing, an increasingly frustrated Trump is realizing that he cannot escape either the Epstein Files or the Iran War he launched on a whim. But there’s more, isn’t there?

Inflation is surging, his poll numbers continue to fall, his big Freedom 250 concert imploded, his slush fund is on hold, he doesn’t have his ballroom yet, (some) Republicans are defying him, and on Monday he was roundly and raucously booed in his old hometown.

It’s not your imagination; it’s taking a toll.

We saw an angry, red-faced Trump crash out in an interview on “Meet the Press,” and now reports suggest that the brooding. sulking president is increasingly isolated and prone to (even more) erratic decisions. He’s standing by his bizarre appointment of Bill Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence and lashing out at fellow Republicans who are telling him that the appointment is crazy with hair on it. His response? More middle fingers to Republicans in Congress. Via Politico’s Playbook:

“He’s pissed and people are not recognizing the level of pissed that he is,” the operative said, pointing to Senate Republicans’ opposition to Trump’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund,” White House ballroom funding and resistance to firing the parliamentarian as the fuel for Trump’s resentment.¹

His mood did not improve on Wednesday.

The NYT published an excerpt from the new book by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan that paints an extraordinary picture of a divided White House, panicking and backbiting over the Epstein cover-up: “Inside Trump’s White House, the Epstein Files Caused a Freakout - The New York Times.” (Gift link)

On July 17, 2025, at around 6 o’clock in the evening, President Trump’s top officials filed into the White House Situation Room — the secure bunker where classified and high-stakes national security matters are discussed and decided. This was where President Barack Obama, along with Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the president’s national security team, watched the raid that ended with the death of Osama bin Laden in 2011.

Now, however, Trump’s most senior advisers had gathered — without him — to figure out how to gain some measure of control over a very different kind of crisis threatening to engulf the presidency: the Epstein files.

Really, you should read the whole thing here.

**

Then there is Iran, the war that he said was won on the first day. The war that would be quick and easy. The war he said would be settled any day now. Iran’s military was obliterated. Peace, he assured us, was just a couple of days away. By CNN’s latest count, he has said that an Iran deal is around the corner 38 times since March,

But there he was on Wednesday, launching new strikes, with no deal anywhere in sight. He’s back to threatening war crimes and massive escalation. This morning, Trump promised (?) to hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” and threatened to seize control of the country’s oil and gas facilities.

“At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Meanwhile, the House just defied Trump and refused to extend the FISA wiretapping law, which expires Friday.

But, at least, he has his UFC Birthday Fight to look forward to. So there’s that: “Trump's White House UFC fight requires $60M and 7 federal agencies” | AP News

Which brings us back to the quote that (ought to) launch a thousand television/TikTok/Insta/YouTube ads. On Wednesday, as he held court in his gilded Oval Office, the man who promised to be the voice of the forgotten American was asked if he was concerned about new data that showed the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, a three-year high. He replied:

The numbers were great. You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over…when the war is over, it’s coming down, it’s going to come down like a rock.

Adam Kinzinger asks the pertinent question: Who says this sort of thing? The answer, of course, is no one. Except Donald Trump.

I have been trying to find the right word for that moment since I watched the clip this morning. Not the lie embedded in it, because we have documented those for a long time now.

What stopped me was the ease. The complete absence of any visible awareness that the people who would see that clip are the same people paying $4.81 for a gallon of gas on the way to work.

The same people who have watched their grocery bills climb every month for four months. The same people who were told, over and over again in 2024, that Donald Trump would end inflation starting on day one and make America affordable again.

Nota Bene

Phillips O’Brien: “War Crimes Seem To Be Official US Policy Now.”

On the evening of June 9, the USA, with what seems to be intent, attacked two reservoirs and a water treatment facility in southern Iran. Almost immediately afterwards, water was cut off to about 20,000 Iranian civilians who live around the southern Iranian town of Sirik….

Earlier attacks that hit civilians might have been mistakes, such as the attack on the girls’ school which started the campaign, but it is hard to see this as a mistake. The target was too specialized, too localized and the effect seems calibrated (see the section on why it might have been committed below).

Is It A War Crime?

Without a doubt. Attacking other infrastructure was probably a war crime as well (think bridges or power plants) but there can at least be arguments made that these are dual use facilities. Militaries use bridges, military production uses generated electricity. If the US destroyed all the bridges in Iran or shut off all the power, as Trump has threatened numerous times, I would definitely consider it a war crime. However, lawyers could try and argue that because of military use, these are allowable targets.

However, a reservoir serving a civilian community is unarguably a crime. The military will get its water somehow, the civilians will suffer. And note, this is one of the hottest and driest places on the globe. Academic data for the Sirik region confirms that summer temperatures routinely peak between 45°C and 48.5°C during the warmest months. That is over 115 degrees Fahrenheit. That is comparable to Death Valley in California.

A human being cannot live long in such a climate without water—so either the locals will die of dehydration or, more likely, some will drink contaminated water and die from that.

Either way the US has attacked, seemingly deliberately, a facility vital to the maintenance of human life that has no discernible military utility. So yes, it is a war crime.

Surprise, surprise. Sarah Fitzpatrick reports in The Atlantic: “Trump Isn’t Giving Up on His Slush Fund” (Gift link)

Behind the scenes, Justice Department and other Trump-administration officials have quietly assured allies that plans for some form of payout remain on track. I spoke with eight people familiar with the so-called Anti-Weaponization Fund—including current and former Justice Department officials, current and former members of Congress, a defense attorney, and political operatives close to the administration.

All said that Justice Department officials and people close to the White House have indicated that the payout idea has not actually been scrapped. Rather, they say, officials are exploring whether elements of the fund can be reactivated while also examining alternative arrangements to make sure loyalists get compensated.

Across the administration, and even within the Justice Department, officials have differing perspectives on whether the fund itself will ultimately be restored. But either way, officials see a path forward for the government to pay those who say they are victims of supposed government “weaponization.”

Today’s podcast

Something different today. Instead of politics, we’re going to talk about life, and death, and grief. In this case, the death of a child.

In this special “To the Contrary” episode, I sit down with Danielle Crittenden, whose 32-year-old daughter Miranda died suddenly two years ago. Crittenden recently published Dispatches from Grief: A Mother’s Journey Through the Unthinkable. We discuss life after loss, how to talk about grief, and the awkward moments that arise when you tell others you’ve lost someone you love.

Subscribers can listen to an ad-free version right here… or you can watch on YouTube / Listen (and subscribe) on Apple/ Spotify / iHeart / RSS Feed

Thursday dogs

Someone’s in the house, so Eli feels the need to sit on me.

1. From Playbook this morning:

For days, Senate Republicans hoped the administration would find an off-ramp to the standoff, name a permanent nominee to replace Pulte as director of national intelligence, and clear the way to reauthorize FISA Section 702 before it expires on Friday.

Senior GOP staffers told Playbook they felt even more confident having deployed Speaker Mike Johnson to the White House to make sure the president would act quickly to quell the uprising among Democrats and some Republicans.

Instead, Trump publicly doubled down on Pulte shortly after Johnson’s visit. The move stunned congressional Republicans who thought the team around Trump understood the dilemma on the Hill and were working toward a solution.

Interviews with Trump allies, GOP Senate aides and people close to the White House reveal a president “increasingly frustrated with everyone, from his own team to the Senate,” a MAGA world operative close to the White House told Playbook.