The Sum of Trump's Fears?

We need the usual caveats about irrational exuberance or hopium chuffing. As you know I am skeptical of optimism, but remain hopeful, which is a very different thing.¹

Donald J. Trump is having a lousy month. And it’s just begun. Let’s connect the dots, starting with the economy. From yesterday’s Atlantic:

The worst job numbers since the Great Recession, the slowest economic growth since COVID, and the worst inflation in nearly two years—these are not the signs of a healthy economy. And we haven’t even talked about oil yet.

Indeed, the price of oil has jumped 35 percent in the last week, the biggest spike in trading history. (Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told The Financial Times on Friday that crude prices could reach $150 per barrel in the coming weeks if oil tankers were unable to pass through the Strait. This could “bring down the economies of the world,” Kaabi said.)

Along with Trump’s tariffs those soaring oil costs, will pushing prices higher — at a time “affordability” has been a political albatross for the GOP.

And the stock market keeps dropping along with Trump’s poll numbers.

Trump’s Perfect Storm

Let’s connect some more dots:

• Polls suggest that the public may soon tire of a war they never supported in the first place.

• “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.” Instead of taking a flexible off-ramp, Trump’s new demand is “the latest and broadest expansion of his goals for the conflict, and one that could portend a much longer war if he persists in that aim.”

• Echoes of “endless wars.” Via NBC News: “Trump has privately shown serious interest in U.S. ground troops in Iran.”

• What could go wrong? “Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime” - The Washington Post

  A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

• And questions about RussiaRussiaRussia once again take center stage: The Wapo reports: “Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target US forces, officials say.” And Trump shrugs. Comments Rick Wilson:

  It’s a nested doll of betrayal where Russian intel guides the drones that murder our troops, all while the “strongman” in Washington plays Putin’s favorite submissive.

  And the response from the Administration? The usual pathetic, transactional shrug. Karoline Leavitt, smirking, “It doesn’t make a difference,” will not age well when flag-draped coffins arrive at Dover AFB.
  Instead of a crushing kinetic or economic response, Trump is handing out oil waivers to Russia like party favors, effectively subsidizing the very regime that’s mapping out the coordinates for the next strike on a U.S. base.

Meanwhile…

• The Epstein Files are back in the news, including the story of Trump’s alleged assault of a 13-year-old girl. “Stunning FBI Doc Claims Trump Assaulted Teen Girl After She ‘Bit the Sh*t Out of’ His Penis.”

• The Courts — including Trump’s own Supreme Court — are slapping down some of his key initiatives and showing a willingness to block his abuse of power.

• His campaign of revenge and retribution is suffering one setback after another. Attempted prosecutions of James Comey, Letitia James, and Democratic members of Congress have fallen apart. And just this week: “DOJ failed to build criminal case against Biden over autopen use.” So much losing.

• Even (some) Republicans in Congress are getting sick of the performative assholery of his cabinet members. Kristi Noem is out. Pam Bondi’s turn in the barrel is coming up: “House committee votes to subpoena Pam Bondi over Epstein files” | AP News.

• Rising Democratic voter enthusiasm could portend a midterm GOP shellacking.

• Measles are back. “Measles outbreaks are costing the U.S. millions of dollars. The true losses can't be counted” - NBC.

Exit take: But, hey at least he’s (probably) going to get his new ballroom. FFS.

Today’s Podcast

You had questions. We tried to keep up.

This weekend’s “To the Contrary” podcast is a one-man show — as we cover the waterfront of deplorability: everything from the pathetic White House Correspondents’ Dinner to Jimmy Kimmel’s take on the dumbest member of the US Senate.

We also touch on:

• The Texas primaries

• The threat to the midterms

• GOP double-talk on Iran

• Splits in MAGA

Subscribers can listen to an ad-free version right here… )or you can watch on YouTube / Listen (and subscribe) on Apple/ Spotify / iHeart / RSS Feed

Saturday dogs

Auggie wants to know if it’s too early to start drinking.

1. Rabbi Jonathan Sacks explained:

“Optimism and hope are not the same. Optimism is the belief that the world is changing for the better; hope is the belief that, together, we can make the world better. Optimism is a passive virtue, hope an active one. It needs no courage to be an optimist, but it takes a great deal of courage to hope.