The Ugly Politics of Trump's War
The MAGA base splinters
There’s the fog of war. And then there is this:
An escalating conflict in the Mideast that may or may not involve nuclear weapons and regime change; and may or may not involve the United States, whose policy is now expressed through blustery and marginally incoherent threats on social media.
This morning, at a new flag pole installation on the White House South lawn, Trump was asked what he meant by demanding “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”. His answer:
"Very simple -- unconditional surrender. That means I've had it. I've had it. I give up, no more. Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there. They had bad intentions. You know, for 40 years they've been saying, death to America, death to Israel, death to anybody else that they didn't like. They were bullies. They were schoolyard bullies, and now they're not bullies anymore."
Happy Wednesday.
Several things may be true at the same time:
America ought to stand with Israel, while recognizing that Benjamin Netanyahu (1) does not always deserve the benefit of the doubt, and (2) is an unreliable narrator.
The world would be a vastly better and safer place if Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. Ditto for dismantling the terrorist regime. This week, the G7 nations reiterated that, “Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror,” and “We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.”
Achieving these goals through war will not be easy or achieved without great cost.
War with Iran could unleash chaos throughout the region. And what comes afterward could be worse.
The most dangerous scenarios involve miscalculations, misjudgments, and misinterpretations. (See World War I.)
So, this moment requires the highest degree of skill and prudence — the most sober, strategic, and sagacious diplomatic and military minds we can muster.
Instead, we have a reality tv host and a dipsomaniacal chode in charge of the world’s greatest military on the brink of war.
Instead of assembling a “coalition of the willing,” Trump and Israel seem intent on going it alone, isolated and without the active support of allies.
As has become its wont, Congress remains a potted plant throughout this whole crisis.
Looming over all of this is The Decider and his bizarre collection of advisers. How bad is it? Here’s Daniel Drezner:
Just read Kerry Howley’s profile of Pete Hegseth play-acting his role as Secretary of Defense1 or the NBC News reporting that no one competent wants to work for Hegseth2 or recall Tulsi Gabbard’s general weirdness or the utter absurdity of Marco Rubio working at four jobs and doing all of them badly.
That would be the moment when you realize that there are no adults in the Situation Room. This is an administration in which, during foreign policy crisis, there is Trump’s whims and little else.
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This morning, all indications suggest that Trump (caught flat-footed by Israel’s attack) is now ready to join the war, despite bipartisan opposition and an increasingly ugly split in his own MAGA base. The New York Times reports: “Mr. Trump is seriously considering sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets and to try to take out Iran’s deep-underground nuclear site at Fordo with 30,000-pound bombs — a step that would mark a stunning turnabout from his opposition just two months ago to any military action while there was still a chance of a diplomatic solution.”
Thus far, Trump’s attempt to intimidate the Iranians with ALL CAPS social media posts does not seem to be having the desired effect.
Iran’s supreme leader responded to Trump’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” demand by threatening “irreparable damage” if the United States joins the war. US bases and troops in the Mideast remain within harm’s way.
“Intelligent people who know Iran, the nation and the history of Iran will never speak to this nation in the language of threats, because the Iranian nation cannot be surrendered,” he said in a televised statement, according to Iranian state media. “The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.”
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BONUS: There is always a tweet. Always.
The MAGA split turns ugly
Yes, you hate to see it. (Sarcasm emoji.)
Many of the folks who thought “America First” meant isolationism and and end to “endless wars” are in high dudgeon over Trump’s eagerness to embroil the US in a new war. Jonathan Lemire and Isaac Stanley-Becker report in the Atlantic: “The MAGA Coalition Has Turned on Itself. And Donald Trump is caught in the middle.” [GIFT LINK].
Right-wing figures have descended into vicious debate over whether the White House should take a more active role in Israel’s bombardment of Iran—one that, with American help, could dismantle Tehran’s nuclear program or even lead to regime change. Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and other isolationist voices are demanding that Trump stay out of another Middle Eastern war. Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and other more hawkish conservatives are making the case that there has never been—and may never again be—a better time to take on Iran.
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[Tucker] Carlson humiliated [Senator Ted] Cruz for not knowing basic statistics about Iran despite supporting military action against the country.
“How many people are living in Iran, by the way? asked Carlson, to which Cruz admitted, “I don’t know the population.”
Carlson shot back, “You don’t know the population of the country you seek to topple?”
After Cruz seemingly tried to catch Carlson out with the same question, asking, “How many people live in Iran?” Carlson replied, “Ninety-two million.”
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Exit Take: Polls do not suggest a great appetite for a US-Iran conflict.
A Economist/YouGov poll conducted between June 13 and June 16 found just 16 percent of Americans said that the U.S. military should get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran, with 60 percent saying America shouldn’t and 24 percent reporting they aren’t sure. Even among Republicans, a majority — 53 percent — said the military should not get involved.
The Thuggery Escalates
A week after federal agents handcuffed California senator Alex Padilla, ICE agents manhandled and arrested the comptroller of the City of New York. The whole chaotic scene was caught on video.
New York City mayoral candidate Brad Lander was handcuffed and detained by federal agents Tuesday afternoon while escorting migrants from immigration hearings in Lower Manhattan.
Footage and video of the hectic incident is firing up the third-place candidate’s suddenly energetic campaign, as he shows himself taking on an issue that’s central to President Donald Trump’s political agenda.
“I’m not obstructing, I’m standing right here in the hallway. I asked to see the judicial warrant,” the candidate says in the video.
And then there was this:
Exit take: For those of you keeping score, Trump’s agents have now arrested and/or detained: a New Jersey mayor; a US Representative; a Wisconsin judge; a California labor leader… in addition to arresting the comptroller and candidate for mayor in NYC, and handcuffing a US Senator.
Expect more of this, as Trump explicitly targets Democratic cities.
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Zero Empathy
None. Nada. Zip. Bupkus.
On Air Force One, President Trump was asked whether he plans to call Gov. Tim Walz in the wake of the targeted assassinations of Democratic legislators in his state:
“I’m not calling him. Why would I call him? I could call and say, ‘Hi, how you doing?’ The guy doesn’t have a clue. He’s a mess. I could be nice and call, but why waste time?”
Wednesday dog
Auggie!
“It was clear from the beginning which parts of the job Hegseth most enjoyed: working out, posting about working out, and discussing the imminent removal of trans servicemembers. He liked the word lethality almost as much as he liked the word warfighter. He posted pictures of himself mid-push-up, tattooed biceps taut in the effort, and videos of himself running among younger, uniformed men.”
“So far, though, the administration has not had much luck identifying people who are either willing to work for Hegseth or who fit the bill politically. And the White House has rejected some people Hegseth wants to hire, while Hegseth has rejected some of the White House’s candidates.”
"Dipsomaniacal chode" takes the cake for the best description yet of Kegseth.
Wait until trump's voters realize an escalation of war with Iran on our part will hurt the stock market, the economy, disrupt supply chains and drive up the price of gas...