Trump's "Honeymoon" Didn't Even Last a Month
“You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, prime minister of free, independent Canada, after last night’s OT hockey win over the USA.1
O Canada!
**
As you know, I generally avoid obsessing about polls; and you’ll have to go a few streets down from here down to find the guys who deal in the hard-core hopium. But I think an exception is in order since (1) we all need a break and (2) the latest poll numbers are a useful antidote to the right’s triumphalism, the left’s blithering, the pundits’ eeyorism, and the frustration all the rest of us have been feeling.
The short version for those of you still hiding under your pillows: Reports of Trump’s “honeymoon” were greatly exaggerated to begin with; his approval numbers are historically flaccid; and the public generally hates a lot of what’s he doing right now.
So Happy Friday.
I know that there are a lot of claims on your time and your pocketbook. But please take a moment to consider supporting us.
To the Contrary is a reader-supported publication. There are no investors. No sugar daddies. Just me. And the dogs.
You may disagree with me from time to time (and I expect you will, because I’m not promising you a safe space here). But I’ll always try to give it to you straight, sober, sane — with a dash of snark.
To receive new posts — including podcasts and videos— please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. (And I’m immensely grateful for your generous support.)
The latest CNN poll has Trump’s approval rating underwater 47-52%, which is less than stellar, but better than he’s done in the past. However, let’s put his numbers in historical perspective. Here are some other presidential approval ratings at this point in their terms:
Obama, Feb. '09 76%
Kennedy, Feb. ’61 72%
Carter, Feb. ’77 71%
Eisenhower, Feb. ’53 67%
G.H.W. Bush, Feb./Mar. ’89 63%
Nixon, Feb. ’69 60%
G.W. Bush, Feb. '01 57%
Reagan, Feb. ’81 55%
Clinton, Feb. '93 51%
Biden, Mar. '21 51%
The only other president with a lower approval rating in his first month? Donald Trump, who had a 44% approval rate in February 2017.
So not only did Trump not win any sort of mandate, his honeymoon numbers are basically a participation trophy compared with other presidents.
But the topline numbers only tell part of the story — and maybe not the most interesting part. The most ominous number of all? The Post-Ipsos poll found Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy 53 to 45 — his worst economic numbers since 2017.
And here’s the potential presidency-killer: the Reuters poll found that only 32 percent of Americans approve of his handling of inflation — the issue that we were told propelled him to the White House.
The CNN poll found widespread skepticism about Trump’s agenda:
“A broad majority feel the president isn’t doing enough to address the high prices of everyday goods.
“And 52% say he’s gone too far in using his presidential power, with similar majorities wary of his push to shutter federal agencies and elevate Elon Musk to a prominent role in his efforts to reshape the government.”
“Most adults nationwide, 55%, say that Trump has not paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems and 62% feel he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods. Sizable shares across party lines share the latter view, including 47% of Republicans, 65% of independents and 73% of Democrats. In CNN’s January polling, the economy eclipsed all other issues as Americans’ top concern.”
Yeah, the honeymoon is definitely over
The Wapo’s Aaron Blake probably has the best breakdown of Trump’s problems. As Blake notes, it’s not just that Trump’s approval rating is slumping — there are real warning signs that many of his policies are tanking.
Blake notes that the CNN poll tested five major Trump initiatives and in each case, voters called them a “bad idea” than a “good idea,” by an average margin of 23 points.
A big one is the shuttering of USAID. Americans oppose it by 21 points in the Post-Ipsos poll (59-38) and 25 points in the CNN poll (53-28).
Another is Trump’s tariffs. The CNN poll shows Americans oppose his tariffs on aluminum and steel by 15 points (49-34), while the Post-Ipsos poll shows nearly 2-to-1 opposition to his 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada.
About 7 in 10 Americans think tariffs generally increase the price of products in the United States.
Still another is the firings of large numbers of government workers, which is opposed by 19 points (58-39) in the Post-Ipsos poll.
**
The new polls also found that Americans — even some who voted for Trump — absolutely detest his pardons of violent January 6 rioters. The new Post-Ipsos poll found that voters opposed those pardons by an overwhelming 83 to 14 percent.
Even Republican-leaning voters gave thumbs-down to those pardons by a margin of 70 to 27 pecent.
**
About those deportations
And let’s take a slightly deeper dive into Trump’s signature “mass deportation” initiative. At first glance, this is one of his more popular ideas — with 50 percent of voters they approve.
But the political devil (at least for Trump) is in the details.
Americans strongly oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who aren’t criminals (57-39), who arrived as children (70-26) and who have U.S. citizen children (66-30).
That accounts for a huge number of would-be deportees, and it suggests that a true mass-deportation operation could be politically problematic.
Then we get to the problem known as Elon Musk.
In the CNN poll, Musk having a prominent role in the administration is viewed as a “bad thing” (54-28) by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio. The Post-Ipsos poll showed Americans disapprove by a similarly wide margin (52-26) of Musk “shutting down federal government programs that he decides are unnecessary.”
And Americans said 63 to 34 that they are concerned about Musk’s team getting access to their data, which is the subject of high-profile legal fights.
The CNN poll is not an outlier. Other polls also found voters queasy about Elon Musk’s role. Quinnipiac’s poll found that 55% of voters “think Elon Musk has too much power in making decisions affecting the United States…. Voters 54 - 42 percent disapprove of Elon Musk playing a prominent role in the Trump administration.”
Here’s Reuters-Ipsos:
“A majority of Americans worry that Elon Musk's drive to slash the federal government could hurt services their communities depend on and believe that billionaires have too much influence on President Donald Trump's administration, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
“Some 58% of respondents to the six-day survey completed on Tuesday said they were concerned that federal programs such as Social Security retirement payments and student aid could be delayed by Musk's campaign, double the 29% of respondents who said they did not worry about it.”
“Americans, including some of Trump's most ardent supporters, are nervous about the influence wealthy Americans are having on the White House after Trump stocked his cabinet and circle of advisers with corporate executives and billionaires.
“Among poll respondents, 71% agreed with a statement that the very wealthy have too much influence on the White House, and 69% said they think the wealthy are making money off their White House connections.”
Exit take: For Trump, the worst may be yet to come. His honeymoon is over even before he enacts massive cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid; before more mass resignations and firings, vindictive prosecutions, family separations, park closures, plane crashes, government shutdowns, inflation, and botched pandemic and disaster responses.
Ahead lies an FBI about to be vandalized by Kash Patel, a fight over defunding the military, more IRS and Social Security data breaches, massive budget deficits, trade wars, court orders defied, and the brutal fallout from the abandonment of Ukraine to Trump’s Russian puppet master.
And we’re just scratching the surface, aren’t we?
**
Meanwhile…. Via Politico’s Playbook:
DOGE BITES ELEPHANTS? As Elon Musk brandished a chainsaw onstage at CPAC yesterday, it wasn’t just those with front row seats running for cover. A number of Congressional Republicans are starting to flee the blowback of his Department of Government Efficiency’s slash-and-burn approach to federal budget cuts, driven by growing evidence of a groundswell of concern among groups of ordinary voters. And if you think this is only a dynamic in moderate swing seats, consider this morning’s newsletter a wake-up call.
**
Finally
Liz Cheney also some thoughts:
Friday dogs
Pete was not a fan of hats.
Canada’s thrilling 3-2 victory in OT came after the least gracious president in US history posted a gibe about Canada becoming our 51st State… and referring to its PM as “Governor Trudeau.”
This is unfortunately- inconsequential blathering. The polls carry no weight and have no impact on Donald Trump- and quite clearly are showing no impact on the only people who could restrain or redirect Trump’s policies- namely Congress. If they have any impact at all- where is it? Is there one Republican Senator who will stand up and lead enough of his colleagues to push back? Haven’t seen one yet- in fact these polls were all released before the Senate voted to approve Kash Patel as FBI head. So much for the end of the Honeymoon. The honeymoon won’t be over till we see Republicans willing to push against Trump both verbally and more importantly on the floor in votes. Perhaps they will do so over Ukraine but they certainly seem to be deferring to Trump even in this so far. In the meantime “ end of the honeymoon” at the polls be damned - Trump will go on emasculating Congress , undermining the US Constitution, ripping up the fundamentals of the US domestic security net, and destroying American trade and security relations around the world. Once it’s a done deal- it will be a very long time indeed for the nation to recover - if it ever can do so.
Never thought I’d be rooting for the opposing team, and with deepest apologies to the blameless US team, I was glad Canada won.