Heads up: This is likely to be a two-newsletter day, because as Saul Bellow once noted, “There is simply too much to think about.” (And yes, that includes the Trump-Epstein birthday card; the debate over a government shutdown; and a murder in Charlotte.)
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On today’s “To the Contrary Podcast,” I’m joined by historian and journalist Garrett Graff to examine his recent warning that America has entered a dangerous slide toward authoritarianism. From federal occupations of U.S. cities and extrajudicial killings abroad, to the intimidation of business leaders and the hollowing out of Congress, Graff argues the guardrails of democracy are collapsing.
Subscribers can listen to an ad-free version right here… or you can watch on YouTube / Listen (and subscribe) on Apple/ Spotify / iHeart / RSS Feed.
Graff argues that we are not experiencing a constitutional “crisis,” but rather a constitutional “crash.” In his essay, “America Tips Into Fascism”, Graff wrote:
The United States, just months before its 250th birthday as the world’s leading democracy, has tipped over the edge into authoritarianism and fascism. In the end, faster than I imagined possible, it did happen here. The precise moment when and where in recent weeks America crossed that invisible line from democracy into authoritarianism can and will be debated by future historians, but it’s clear that the line itself has been crossed.
I think many Americans wrongly believe there would be one clear unambiguous moment where we go from “democracy” to “authoritarianism.” Instead, this is exactly how it happens — a blurring here, a norm destroyed there, a presidential diktat unchallenged. Then you wake up one morning and our country is different.
Today, August 25, 2025, is that morning. Something is materially different in our country this week than last.
Everything else from here on out is just a matter of degree and wondering how bad it will get and how far it will go? Do we end up “merely” like Hungary or do we go all the way toward an “American Reich”? So far, after years of studying World War II, I fear that America’s trajectory feels more like Berlin circa 1933 than it does Budapest circa 2015.
No sooner had we finished taping today’s podcast than the Administration launched its "Operation Midway Blitz" in Chicago; the Supreme Court put an exclamation point on Graff’s warning: “Supreme Court lifts restrictions on ‘roving’ ICE raids in Los Angeles” - POLITICO
The high court’s majority offered no explanation for its decision to grant the Trump administration’s emergency appeal to block the district judge’s order. However, Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote separately in support of the decision, saying it was reasonable to briefly question people who meet multiple “common sense” criteria for possible illegal presence — including employment in day labor or construction, and limited English proficiency.1
This sounds like a justification for “racial profiling,” (although Kavanaugh denied that)2 and the court’s three liberal justices dissented. In July, U.S. District Judge Maame Ewusi-Mensah Frimpong ruled that ICE agents were making arrests without “reasonable suspicion”, and appeared to be relying on factors such as race, accent, and line of work that “seem no more indicative of illegal presence in the country than of legal presence.”
Sotomayor laid out the practical implications of the SCOTUS decision:
“We should not have to live in a country where the Government can seize anyone who looks Latino, speaks Spanish, and appears to work a low wage job,” Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson. “Rather than stand idly by while our constitutional freedoms are lost, I dissent.”
By not clarifying how someone can prove their citizenship or resident status, Sotomayor noted, Kavanaugh was essentially forcing Latinos to keep their papers on them at all times.
“The Government, and now the concurrence, has all but declared that all Latinos, U.S. citizens or not, who work low wage jobs are fair game to be seized at any time, taken away from work, and held until they provide proof of their legal status to the agents’ satisfaction,” Sotomayor wrote.
Sotomayor also criticized the court’s majority for issuing another consequential decision without offering a legal explanation.
“In the last eight months, this Court’s appetite to circumvent the ordinary appellate process and weigh in on important issues has grown exponentially,” she wrote. “Its interest in explaining itself, unfortunately, has not.”
A highlight from our conversation
It’s worse that a crisis. It’s a crash.
Nota Bene
FIRE: The State of Free Speech on Campus
Only 36% of students said that it was “extremely” or “very” clear that their administration protects free speech on campus.
A record 1 in 3 students now holds some level of acceptance – even if only “rarely” — for resorting to violence to stop a campus speech.
53% of students say that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a difficult topic to discuss openly on campus. On 21 of the campuses surveyed, at least 75% of students said this — including 90% of students at Barnard.
For the first time ever, a majority of students oppose their school allowing any of the six controversial speakers they were asked about onto campus — three controversial conservative speakers and three controversial liberal ones.
“More students than ever think violence and chaos are acceptable alternatives to peaceful protest,” said FIRE Chief Research Advisor Sean Stevens. “This finding cuts across partisan lines. It is not a liberal or conservative problem — it’s an American problem. Students see speech that they oppose as threatening, and their overblown response contributes to a volatile political climate.”
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How JPMorgan Enabled the Crimes of Jeffrey Epstein - The New York Times (Gift Link)
Epstein had long been a treasured customer at JPMorgan. His accounts were brimming with more than $200 million. He generated millions of dollars in revenue for the bank, landing him atop an internal list of major money makers. He helped JPMorgan orchestrate an important acquisition. He introduced executives to men who would become lucrative clients, like the Google co-founder Sergey Brin, and to global leaders, like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. He helped executives troubleshoot crises and strategize about global opportunities.
Tuesday dogs
Auggie feels the need to remind Eli that he’s still the alpha dog around here.
A number of commentators pointed out the apparent contradiction between saying that racial identity could be a factor in arrests, but not in college admissions:
“To be clear, apparent ethnicity alone cannot furnish reasonable suspicion; under this Court’s case law regarding immigration stops, however, it can be a ‘relevant factor’ when considered along with other salient factors,” Kavanaugh wrote.
