WI To Elon: Womp Womp
“Donald Trump's second presidency was dealt a spinning blow by voters in Wisconsin Tuesday as they elected a liberal judge to the state's Supreme Court, despite his billionaire advisor Elon Musk pouring millions into the race to sway the polls. “ — AFP
“I’m honestly shocked. I thought we had it in the bag,” said Pam Van Handel, chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s Outagamie County. “I thought [Musk] was going to be an asset for this race. People love Trump, but maybe they don’t love everybody he supports. Maybe I have blinders on.” Maybe.
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I write in today’s Atlantic: There is a temptation to overhype or read too much into the results of off-year elections.
In this case, I suggest we succumb.
Yesterday, Wisconsin voters exposed, humiliated, and decisively rejected the world’s richest man. And they sent a stark message to Republicans in Washington.
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Happy (and for the first time in a very long time, I don’t mean that ironically) Wednesday!
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The Biggest Loser
It wasn’t even close.
**
Or to put it more graphically:
Apparently, Wisconsinites weren’t buying what Elon was selling. And they sure as hell weren’t going to let him buy them. But this was also a referendum on Donald Trump: his face was on every single piece of pro-Schimel literature delivered to my mailbox.
The message we sent
On Sunday, when Elon Musk parachuted in for a rally that featured $1 million checks for voters, he described the race for state supreme court here in apocalyptic terms. Tuesday’s vote, he declared, would determine which party controlled the House of Representatives, presumably because of the court’s role in redistricting. “That is why it is so significant,” he said. “And whichever party controls the House, you know, it, to a significant degree, controls the country, which then steers the course of Western civilization. So, it’s like I feel like this is one of those things that may not seem that it’s going to affect the entire destiny of humanity, but I think it will. Yeah. So, it’s a super big deal.”
Yesterday’s result—a decisive victory for liberal Susan Crawford over conservative Brad Schimel—was, indeed, a super big deal. Not just for Democrats, who desperately needed this kind of win, but for Musk himself. By inserting himself into the Wisconsin race, Musk, the billionaire who has become a top adviser to President Donald Trump, had hoped to cement his status as MAGA enforcer and kingmaker. Instead, he provided Republicans with graphic evidence that he has become a political boat anchor. Late last night, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board fretted: “The MAGA majority may have a shorter run than advertised.”
It was a message that jittery Republicans in Congress are not likely to miss. As for Trump himself, he notoriously hates both losing and losers.
The stakes for Wisconsin in yesterday’s election were huge. The outcome of the judicial race would affect everything from abortion rights to gerrymandering to public employee bargaining rights. But along the way, Musk turned the race into a referendum on himself and the president.
Conservative groups flooded the state with literature featuring Schimel cheek by jowl with Trump, whose picture was … everywhere. Musk hoped to turn out low-propensity Trump voters by convincing them that Trump was, in effect, on the ballot. Musk and his allies hammered the message over and over in mailers: “Schimel will support President Trump’s agenda!” “President Donald Trump needs your vote. Stop the radical liberal takeover.” “Together, we won the White House. Now it’s time to win the courthouse!”
In the end, it all backfired, and the election wasn’t close. In a state where many elections are decided by razor-thin margins and where Trump won only narrowly in November, Musk’s conservative candidate was shellacked. Democrats turned out in massive numbers, and Schimel failed to hit the targets he needed. The suburban vote continued a leftward shift.
As she claimed victory, Crawford gave a shout-out to Musk. “Growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never could have imagined that I would be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin,” she said. “And we won.”
The timing of Crawford’s win is important. Wisconsin’s vote came amid stories about Musk’s assault on Social Security and circulating reports about massive cuts to public-health agencies, just a week after The Atlantic’s reporting on the Signal security breach, and just before Trump’s expected announcement about huge new tariffs.
At the rally on Sunday, Musk—who has become one of the loudest voices on the right calling for the impeachment of federal judges who rule against Trump—bounced onto a stage in Green Bay wearing a cheesehead and brandishing million-dollar checks. How would this play in the swingiest of swing states, we all wondered? How popular was Musk? How did voters feel about Trump’s shock-and-awe agenda?
Wisconsin voters have given their answer. They delivered a grim verdict on Musk’s chainsawing of government and his crude attempt to buy their state’s high court.
Exit Elon?
Well, this is a coincidence: “Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon” - POLITICO
Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points.
It also represents a stark shift in the Trump-Musk relationship from a month ago, when White House officials and allies were predicting Musk was “here to stay” and that Trump would find a way to blow past the 130-day time limit.
Exit: My default position with this kind of spin is: Don’t Trust. Verify. I won’t be surprised if Elon tries to the cling to the limelight a bit longer. Plus, he’s not as easily disposable as Trump might wish.
More on Wisconsin…
As Jud Lounsbury, a writer for The Progressive, observed, “Schimel was a moderate Republican that was a popular statewide elected Attorney General running against an unknown Dane County judge... ...And he lost by double digits. This is a Trump referendum.”
The Trump effect was most noticeable in the suburban WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington), which continued to slide towards the Democrats. The three counties next to Milwaukee County would, in past elections, offset the Democratic votes from their larger neighbor. Since Trump first won in 2016, the Republican share of the vote in the WOW counties has been steadily declining.
For example, Schimel received just 57.6% of the vote with 94% of the vote counted in his home county, Waukesha. According to Joe Handrick, a widely respected elections numbers cruncher, he needed 63-64%. (As a fellow Waukesha resident, I’m actually surprised he didn’t do better.) By contrast, the last time a Republican-backed candidate won a state Supreme Court race, 2019, Brian Hagedorn received 69% on his way to a 5,900-vote victory statewide.
In Ozaukee County (Charlie Sykes’ backyard), Schimel received just 52.5% of the vote with 81% reported. Hagedorn received 63% of the vote in Ozaukee County. In Washington County, Hagedorn received 75% of the vote in 2019 while Schimel received just 66%.
The election continues a catastrophic streak for conservatives in Trump-era state supreme court elections in Wisconsin. Conservatives once had what seemed like an insurmountable 5-2 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. They've now lost 4 out of the last 5 races and are in a 4-3 minority.
Aaron Blake on Elon’s “Unforced error”:
Musk spent an estimated $25 million on the race, at last check, making him by far the biggest spender. He made appearances in the state to rally support for Schimel. He posted incessantly about it on his social media platform, X. He offered voters money to sign petitions and post pictures at polling places. He even delivered legally dubious $1 million checks to voters.
“This Wisconsin Supreme Court race might decide the future of America and Western Civilization!” he said just days ago.
And Musk decided to do all this even as it’s looking more and more like he’s a political liability for Republicans. Yes, he has gobs of money he can throw at these races. But his efforts to shrink the government through his work with the U.S. DOGE Service have clearly alienated Americans. Most polls show Americans dislike him by double digits.
INCOMING FROM JMART: “It's clear now that while Republicans may crave his financial support, Musk is a severe liability for the party's candidates,” writes POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin in a late night email to your Playbook author. “The margin in the Wisconsin court contest indicates that by inserting himself into the race so personally, Musk undermined the GOP-aligned candidate. Democrats' internal polling had Crawford leading, but not by the 10-point margin she will win once all of Milwaukee has been counted.
“Insisting on showing up to campaign in the final weekend of the campaign was self-defeating enough,” JMart adds. “But it's hard to think of another state, besides neighboring Minnesota, that would be less receptive to handing out money for votes. These are high-turnout, healthy civic culture states. Musk may not have known that — but why didn't any Republicans who did steer him away from the cash gambit?”
Finally,
Trust me when I tell you that I spoke from the heart last night.
Dear Elon,
Thank you.
Wednesday dog
We have some stormy weather and a scared puppy. Eli decided to hide in the bathtub. Make sure you read my wife’s description of our scared-dog fiasco this morning…. and why you almost didn’t get this newsletter. “Rough winds do shake…darling Eli” - by J. F. Riordan
Note to Elon: It’s much easier to buy a willing chump than a state full of thinking people.
Charlie, your brief 2-word message to elon was truth and elegance embodied. BRAVO 👏 👏👏