All the Worst People
MAGA's wretched hive.
Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness/ Close bosom-friend of the maturing sun;
—John Keats, To Autumn
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Happy Sunday. And welcome to Fall. There are 43 days until Election Day.
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As he slouches toward November, Donald Trump has apparently decided to check all the boxes of bigotry. Fresh off demonizing Haitian immigrants with fake stories about pet-eating, he pivoted to the ur-scapegoats: the Jews.
Donald Trump Preemptively Blames Jewish Voters If He Loses
Former President Donald Trump said if he loses the election in November, Jewish voters “would really have a lot to do with that.”
The ADL responded: “Preemptively blaming American Jews for your potential election loss does zero to help American Jews. It increases their sense of alienation in a moment of vulnerability when right-wing extremists and left-wing anti Zionists continually demonize and slander Jews.”
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The former president also pushed hard for a government shutdown, which this Real Man of Political Genius thinks will help his campaign. Via Politico: “The former president had convinced himself that a shutdown over voting laws would usher in a GOP wave, enabling him to not only reclaim the White House but land substantial majorities in Congress.”
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And he keeps pushing the debunked Haitian cat-eating story. Greg Sargent explains why:
Trump actively wants the argument over immigration to be as charged with hate and rage as possible. He doesn’t think that will alienate swing voters. He thinks it will activate their latent MAGA tendencies.
The picture Trump is seizing on Springfield to invoke—that of a largely white, innocent heartland town getting ravaged by dark, alien hordes who basically constitute a subhuman species—simply cannot be a distraction from the immigration debate. To Trump, it is the immigration debate.
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So, on this autumnal Sunday, how is this all working out for him? Let’s check in with Drudge this morning:
BONUS: “Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, 49%-44%, in the new national NBC News poll.”
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Nota bene: “741 former national security leaders endorse Kamala Harris.”
—15 four-star Generals
—10 former cabinet secretaries
—10 service secretaries
—Multiple GOP leaders who served under Trump
The group characterized the election as “a choice between serious leadership and vengeful impulsiveness. It is a choice between democracy and authoritarianism.”
All the absolutely worst people
It is hardly breaking news that Trump has chronically gathered round him a wretched hive of scum and villainy, from Paul Manafort and Steve Bannon to Corey Lewandowski and Laura Loomer. None of this is new. Back in 2018, I wrote in the late Weekly Standard about “Trump’s effect on others in his orbit, who seem to have absorbed his arrogant amoralism and the smug conviction that they are immune from consequences.”
Having convinced themselves that nothing matters, Republicans have encouraged the notion that they can get away with pretty much anything because their tribal allies will always provide them cover. The consequence has not only been an extraordinary tolerance for deception, corruption, and cruelty, but an embrace of a free-floating moral relativism that is wholly alien to the traditional notions of conservatism…
Under Trump, the GOP is not merely tolerating swampiness, it has created the ideal, fetid environment for growing and multiplying swamp creatures. Worse, Trumpism has seemingly robbed Republicans of the capacity to confront the moral rot they have helped create.
Which brings us to the latest story from North Carolina, where Republicans find themselves stuck with the sordid, lurid, and most definitely NSFW scandals of self-proclaimed Black Nazi and porn fan, Mark Robinson.
Despite a recent history of anti-transgender rhetoric, Robinson said he enjoyed watching transgender pornography, a review of archived messages found in which he also referred to himself as a “perv.”
Perhaps you thought CNN was being squeamish when it declined to extensively quote Messr. Robinson’s pornographic stylings, “given their graphic nature.”
But no… Oh God… no, my eyes! Suffice it to say that it’s worse than your most emetic imaginings.
The GOP gubernatorial nominee’s literary tastes are as depraved as his sexual tastes. The Wapo reports: Porn site user linked to Mark Robinson also praised Mein Kampf.
“Mein Kampf is a good read,” the user, dubbed “minisoldr,” wrote in a thread seeking book recommendations. “It’s very informative and not at all what I thought it would be. It’s a real eye opener.” The book, an autobiography by Hitler, casts Jews as an “eternal parasite.”
Robinson has also expressed support for reinstating slavery, a view that seems somewhat inconsistent with Trump’s insistence that Robinson is MLK “on steroids.”
All of this is shocking, but not really at all surprising, since Robinson — whom Trump has repeatedly compared to Martin Luther King Jr. — has been a deplorable nightmare from the get-go. Via ABC:
While he holds statewide office and has broad name recognition, Robinson boasts a highly controversial record, including calling the Holocaust "hogwash" and homosexuality "filth," and he drew claims of hypocrisy when he admitted this year that he had paid for his wife to get an abortion, seemingly in contrast with his stated opposition to the procedure, which he'd previously likened to "murder" and "genocide."
Obviously, this is a political disaster for the GOP and may well cost them a crucial swing state. But — and bear with me here — this is not all Trump’s fault.
Robinson is the GOP’s nominee for governor, because Republican voters chose him. This is what the base wanted and, once again, they are getting it good and hard.
And it’s not just Robinson. Reports the NYT:
Republicans this year also have an extreme candidate for public schools superintendent. The party’s nominee for the post, Michelle Morrow, once proposed executing former President Barack Obama and showing it on pay-per-view television.
You can also see the Trump Effect in the reaction to the revelations about Robinson. After years of Trumpian gaslighting, many NC Republicans simply refuse to believe the stories, despite the evidence of their own eyes. Via the Dispatch:
“He’s one of the finest Christian men I know. Okay?” said Temple as he fished a cigarette out of the front pocket of his T-shirt. “My granddaddy told me something one time—he said, ‘Son, don’t believe nothing you hear and half you see.’ Well, I’m gonna change that ‘half you see’ to ‘all you see’ when they start putting stuff out like that, because, you know, you can’t trust y’all people—media.”
BONUS: The Harris campaign is going to be all over this. CNN: Harris campaign launching new ad seeking to tie Trump to Mark Robinson.
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Then there is Matt Gaetz.
Rep. Matt Gaetz attended a drug-fueled sex party in 2017 with the 17-year-old girl at the center of the alleged sex trafficking scandal, according to legal documents filed to a Florida federal court shortly before midnight Thursday, which cite sealed affidavits from three eyewitness testimonies.
The minor, who was a junior in high school at the time, arrived in her mother’s car for a July 15, 2017, party at the Florida home of Chris Dorworth, a lobbyist and friend of Gaetz’s, according to a court filing written by defense attorneys who interviewed witnesses as part of an ongoing civil lawsuit Dorworth brought in 2023….
One eyewitness cited in the court filings, a young woman referred to as K.M., provided a sworn affidavit that claimed the teenage girl was naked, partygoers were there to “engage in sexual activities,” and “alcohol, cocaine, ecstasy … and marijuana” were present. The teenage girl was identified in the filings only as A.B.
But in yet another swing state near you…
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And, of course, there’s Elon, who has emerged as Trump’s loudest — and most shameless — social media shill. Thomas Chatterton Williams writes in the Atlantic: Elon Musk Is Debasing American Society:
When Elon Musk acquired Twitter and changed its name to X, he promptly went about stripping its capacity for content moderation, reinstating extremist accounts, and boosting the reach and visibility of the worst trolls. I have heard many blithe rationalizations of the pragmatic and even salutary benefits of “knowing what people really think.”
But the pervasiveness and normalization of what was, until very recently, niche and stigmatized bigotry has been astonishing to witness. Although there was plenty of racism on the internet during Trump’s first and second campaigns, it wasn’t this ubiquitous on mainstream networks such as Twitter. On Musk’s X, the racism has now become so relentless and self-confident that it amounts to a genuine qualitative difference.
The State of the Race in Wisconsin
As loath as I am to engage in rank horse-race punditry and pearl-clutching over polls, this thread (unrolled) from Ben Wikler, the chair of the WisDems is worth your time, because it will make you smarter.
Three polls in the last 24 hours have found Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin by just one point. Marist: Harris 50-Trump 49 AARP: Harris 49-Trump 48 Quinnipiac: Harris 48-Trump 47
In the state that tipped 2016 and 2020, this race is a toss-up.
A toss-up with a twist….
Okay, let’s talk polling.
In 2016 and 2020, *and earlier this year*, polls said, over and over, that the Democratic nominee was doing better in Wisconsin than in the other two Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Not every poll, but most of them.
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics polling average put Clinton ahead 46.6-40.4%—and then she lost 46.5-47.2. The polls dramatically understated Trump’s support, leading to a polling miss of 7.0%.
In 2020, the final RCP average had Biden up 51.6% to 44%—and then he defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%. Amazingly, another polling miss by 7.0%.
In both of those years, Wisconsin looked much safer than Michigan or Pennsylvania… until the results rolled in. (Read this great deep-dive by analyst Kyle Kondik for more details.)
All of that leaves a big, obvious question: are the polls massively off again this year? Should we be subtracting seven points from whatever numbers we see? Or is WI safer than MI and PA? The truth is that nobody truly knows.
Pollsters have argued about the source of the polling bias for the last eight years, and they’ve done a lot to try to correct for problems they identified. It’s possible that polling understates Trump support again—or that, this time, it understates Harris support.
When polls are unclear, seek more sources of data. And the most important source of data is how people actually vote.
In 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022, Wisconsin elections for President and Governor have been closer in Wisconsin than in Michigan or Pennsylvania. In the one exception, 2016, the results were almost identical (all within 1%).
While Wisconsin Dems have won big in some relatively low-profile races (like the state Supreme Court race in 2023), margins in most big, high-turnout races have been close: 2016 Prez: -0.7% 2018 Gov: +1.1% 2020 Prez: +0.6% 2022 Gov: +3.4%
The truth is, particularly with current voter-hostile laws in place, the Wisconsin electorate is almost perfectly evenly divided. Now, the polling reflects that as well.
The polling today lines up with voting history over the last eight years, both in terms of Wisconsin margins and also Wisconsin’s position relative to the other Blue Wall states. And the high-quality late-cycle polls in Wisconsin were pretty accurate in 2022 (and 2018).
So, maybe these polls are more accurate now than they were in the last two presidential races. Or maybe they’re off again—in one direction or the other. Don’t be shocked if there’s another miss.
But when you step back from the mountain of data, the takeaway is simple: expect a nailbiter.
Your weekend dogs
Flashback, sleepy boys.
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Road trip.
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Bookends.
Finally
Trump’s ALL-CAPS appeal to the Women of America.
I have been asking myself this for 8 years, and especially the last 5. How in any rational sane society can 48% of America say they want more of Trump? Ok, they believe Harris is a radical Marxist(and 90% of the Trumpers do not know what that even means).But how can anyone pull that lever for a certifiable and lifelong crook, cheat, rapist, misogynist and all around lunatic and pervert? Just stay home people, how can you say he is an improvement over a potted plant much less a semi sentient human being! This is groupthink, cult behavior on an other worldly level. I will never get over this, ever.
I just don't understand utility of polling. It's done by phone, text, and email but hardly anybody responds. They have to be gullible and careless with their personal privacy - you don't know if it's a scammer calling. Savvy people just don't answer numbers they don't recognize. That means the main respondants are people who are too uninformed to realize the risk to their privacy, or are so lonely that they will talk to anybody. That's a certain subset of the population but I don't think it's representative. So how can a poll be worth anything?