Have We Learned Anything?

Plus: J.D.'s turn in the barrel

After the vertiginous last few days let’s step back and see what we’ve learned.

• Life comes at you fast, and the political world can change with head-snapping speed. In a just a few days, hours the mood/dynamics/energy of the presidential race was transformed. Republicans, who left Milwaukee trailing clouds of hubris, are wrestling with buyer’s remorse, while Democrats are finally looking (for the moment) like a political party with a spring in its step.

• Everything could change tomorrow. Or the next day. Or in an hour.

• The polls showing a tighter race are interesting, but they are merely snapshots — and this new campaign is just five days old, people.

• The future is unknowable, even for pundits. Maybe especially for pundits.

• There was never going to be a New Trump —a kinder, gentler, less viciously mendacious version — and shame on the ink-stained wretches who imagined there might.

• It’s going to get very ugly, very soon, because the MAGA-fied right can’t help itself, doesn’t want to, and may actually have forgotten what restraint, prudence, and decency feel like.

• Brave Sir Donald, that avatar of Strength and Masculinity, is actually pretty terrified of debating women. And the dude is increasingly weird.

• J.D. Vance was an even worse prick pick than we thought.

We also learned this:

• Bubbles are dangerous, because they can blind us against looming threats. But lots of folks want to be in a safe space, and actually demand to be in one.

Happy Saturday

This is not one of those safe spaces.

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Friday night in Wisconsin

Boys, dogs, floating.

**

Boys and lake shark.

Is this real life?

Susan Glasser’s savvy take:

Is the delight over Harris a temporary phenomenon, a species of irrational exuberance? Maybe, but for Democrats it was a hell of a lot better than the I’d-vote-for-Biden-even-if-he’s-dead discourse that has thus far permeated their 2024 election season.

It is also true, of course, that the optimism of the past few days is bound to fade. The reality of an evenly split nation and a daunting electoral map demands it. And we all know this—the race is on to define Harris. The attacks will be ugly and relentless. During a North Carolina rally on Wednesday evening before Biden’s address, Trump vowed, “I’m not going to be nice.” You can be sure of that.

**

Before we forget…

Since the news cycle is accelerating, we need to make an extra effort to occasionally slow down and say, WTF did he just say?

This seems worth remembering: “Nephew Says Trump Suggested Some Disabled People ‘Should Just Die’”

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And most definitely this ——>: “Trump urges Christians to vote: ‘You won’t have to do it’ in four years.”

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And all of the rest of the weirdness:

J.D.’s time in the barrel

Curious minds want to know: did they even bother to vet this guy, or did Trump just like the cut of his jib? Or is JD Vance simply turning out to be the powder-dream of Trump’s fail sons?

In retrospect, this NBC report is as gobsmacking as it entertaining:

MILWAUKEE — With the clock ticking to the Republican National Convention last week, Donald Trump met privately to discuss his running mate search with two of his closest advisers: his sons. 

The conversation quickly turned tense when the former president indicated that he was leaning toward Doug Burgum, until recently the largely unknown governor of North Dakota — but someone whose low-maintenance, no-drama personality would never threaten to outshine Trump.

That’s when Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump chimed in.

“Don Jr. and Eric went bats--- crazy: ‘Why would you do something so stupid? He offers us nothing,’” a longtime Republican operative familiar with the discussion told NBC News.

“They were basically all like ‘JD, JD, JD,’” the operative said.

The rest is all cat ladies, resurfaced tapes, couch memes, and one of the worst roll-outs ever. (And, yes, we are old enough to remember both Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin.)

It’s perhaps too early to suggest that Vance is an utter clusterf*ck, but the numbers aren’t pretty.

How bad is it? Some Republicans are already muttering about mulligans. And the hits keep coming. His attempts to clean up the “childless cat lady” insult simply put fur on the cringe.

Vance told SiriusXM's "The Megyn Kelly Show" in an interview that aired Friday: “Obviously, it was a sarcastic comment. I’ve got nothing against cats"….

The women, apparently, are another matter — and they are learning a great deal about Vance these days, including, his distinctive —and well documented — views on gender relations:

He also was one of only 28 members of Congress who opposed a new HIPAA rule that would limit law enforcement’s access to women’s medical records. He has promoted Viktor Orban’s pro-natalist policies in Hungary, which offer paybacks to married couples that scale up along with the number of children (a new Hungarian Constitution that banned gay marriage went into effect in 2012, so these benefits only serve “traditional” couples). Vance opposes same-sex marriage. During his 2022 Senate campaign, he suggested the sexual revolution had made divorce too easy (people nowadays “shift spouses like they change their underwear”), arguing that people in unhappy marriages, and maybe even those in violent ones, should stay together for their children. His campaign said such an insinuation was “preposterous,” but you can watch the video yourself and be the judge.

**

There’s more. Because of course. Via David Corn: “J.D. Vance Endorsed Book That Calls Progressives “Unhumans” and Praises Jan. 6 Rioters.”

The book, Unhumans: The Secret History of Communist Revolutions (and How to Crush Them), was written by Jack Posobiec and Joshua Lisec. Posobiec is a well-known alt-right agitator and conservative media personality who promoted the bonkers Pizzagate conspiracy theory….

Here’s his blurb:

In the past, communists marched in the streets waving red flags. Today, they march through HR [Human Resources], college campuses, and courtrooms to wage lawfare against good, honest people. In Unhumans, Jack Posobiec and Joshua Lisec reveal their plans and show us what to do to fight back.

There’s a good chance we are going to read/hear a lot more.

Of Bubbles and Warnings

In a campaign, cheerleader-cum-turd polishers are useful. But it’s important to remember that they are not always reality-based.

But, as we’ve seen in recent days, believing the evidence of your own eyes is often unpopular, especially on social media where an extraordinary number of users believe they should never be exposed to bad news or warnings of icebergs ahead.

So far, almost all of the news about the Kamala launch has been laudatory. But that’s going to change, and she is going to face some difficult questions.

This is a good moment for a Reality Check: Kamala Harris is about to face some genuinely ghastly racism and sexism. The “DEI candidate” stuff was just a straw in the wind before the hurricane that’s coming.

But nota bene: Not all of the criticism can be written off as racism or sexism, and it would be a mistake to ignore or downplay the substance of the issues she confronts.

Another reality check: She is probably still the underdog. Here’s James Carville:

There’s “about 10% too much triumphalism going on,” and it’s “going to be a very difficult race,” he said. “It’s going to be very close, and I understand that people are feeling a lot better and excited, but that excitement has got to be tempered with realism, and the realism is she has a tough campaign going on.”

Carville had noticed a “real growth” in Harris, though, he said.

“You can just see the difference,” he added, noting Harris’ apparent increased confidence during her first official campaign rally in Milwaukee.

But it’s going to be “tough sledding ahead” for Democrats, he later warned.

**

The GOP is going to hit Harris hard, and there is a lot of material to work with. This ad from Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormack is a sample of what the Dems are going to have to confront.

Some highlights: “I am prepared to get rid of the filibuster to pass a green New Deal”; “There's no question I'm in favor of banning fracking.” Would you ban offshore drilling? “Yes.”

“Raise your hand if you think it should be a civil offense rather than a crime to cross without documentation.”

“Abolish ICE. Is that a position you agree with?” “We need to probably think about starting from scratch. “

There are also are soundbites about police funding, the death penalty, dietary guidelines, abolishing private health insurance, and mandatory gun buybacks. These would all play well in progressive circles, but the Trump campaign is already weaponizing them to convince moderate swing voters that Harris is too extreme.

This will all come at her fast.

She will only a have few months to define herself before Trump does. One critical moment will come when she is asked whether she still holds many of the positions she took in 2020. Will she double down? Frankly flip-flop? Or figure out a way to finesse them?

A lot will ride on how that goes.

And finally,

The Jabberwocky