The Day After
Trump bombs Iran. What happens next?
Let’s get this out of the way first: I was wrong. Trump didn’t blink this time. And so The United States has joined the war against Iran.
What happens next, only God knows. But I have some questions.
Happy Sunday.
A reminder that several things can be true at the same time:
The world would be a vastly better and safer place if Iran did not have a nuclear weapon.
But achieving that through war will be dangerous and costly. General Mark Hertling warns: “There is no ‘one and done’ in any conflict. The opponent always gets a vote, and unless we’ve prepped for all the things Iran may do we’re gonna have some surprises.”
We don’t know what we don’t know. At this point we don’t know if we have destroyed the Iranian program; or whether last night’s bombing will push Iran to accelerate it. Timothy Snyder reminds us: “Many things reported with confidence in the first hours and days will turn out not to be true.”
The whole thing is a huge gamble. Via the Wapo:
What happens next will have profound consequences for his presidency. If Iran is sufficiently weakened that it cannot meaningfully retaliate, Trump will have delivered a blow against a longtime adversary that will send a message to China, Russia and other global rivals that he will not shy from using military power when necessary.
But if Iran does not agree to peace on Trump’s terms, the president’s vow that “there are many targets left” opened the door to a much deeper and potentially longer conflict. Already, that prospect is angering some members of his political base.
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Do you have mixed feelings about all of this? You’re not alone. George Conway captures some of the dissonance:
Much as I would not dare to predict the consequences of this war, I do think we can summarize it thusly so far:
A smart and evil man manipulated a stupid and evil man into a war against a fanatical and evil regime.
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So here are some questions to keep in mind as we wake up to Trump’s Mideast War.
Will Iran retaliate by targeting US troops as they are threatening?
Does Iran have the capability of closing the Strait of Hormuz? And what will that do to the world economy?
Will there be terror attacks against Americans?
How will we actually know if Iranian nuclear facilities were, in fact, “completely and totally obliterated,” as Trump claimed last night? (Nota bene that Trump ignored the assessment of U.S. intelligence officials who said Iran was not seeking a nuclear weapon. When he was told that his DNI, Tulsi Gabbard, had also said there was no such program, Trump declared: “I don’t care what she said, I think they were very close to having one.”)
Will Congress remain a potted plant?
Ron Fournier offers a few more pointed questions:
“Why did Trump break decades of bipartisan war-making norms by keeping top Democrats on the intelligence committees in the dark about his war plans? The White House only briefed top Republicans.
“Is the president’s national security team up to the job? Trump doesn’t seem to think so: In the runup to the attack, he sidelined two cornerstones of his war Cabinet, the defense secretary and the director of U.S. intelligence?
“Who is running the U.S. policy in the Middle East, the president of the United States or the prime minister of Israel?
“What was with that awkward ending to Trump’s remarks Saturday night? “We love you God,” he said.”
BONUS: What happens next? Ed Luce reminds us that nobody knows.
It is easy to start a war, especially if you command the most powerful military on Earth.
But wars only end when one side gives up. That age-old warning about the fog of war is particularly relevant to today’s Middle East, in which there are often more than two warring parties.
The enemy of your enemy can turn out also to be your enemy. Having once been lectured by a younger Netanyahu, Bill Clinton said to an aide, “Who’s the fucking superpower here?” Trump’s brief televised address following the strikes was meant to showcase his command of the situation. In reality, Netanyahu has been dictating events. But even he cannot predict how Iran will respond.
The Other Dangers of a Trump War
Luce also highlights this irony:
Trump’s Iran strikes are being cheered on by many of the “Never Trumpers” who had been warning so starkly of Trump’s autocratic impulses. They are prepared to risk the power-aggrandising opportunity that war will offer Trump.
In the Atlantic, Robert Kagan graphically explains why this would be a grave mistake. "The United States is well down the road to dictatorship,” he writes. “Imagine what Trump would do with a state of war.”
That is the context in which a war with Iran will occur. Donald Trump has assumed dictatorial control over the nation’s law enforcement. The Justice Department, the police, ICE agents, and the National Guard apparently answer to him, not to the people or the Constitution. He has neutered Congress by effectively taking control of the power of the purse….
Think of how Trump can use a state of war to strengthen his dictatorial control at home. Trump declared a state of national emergency in response to a nonexistent “invasion” by Venezuelan gangs. Imagine what he will do when the United States is actually at war with a real country, one that many Americans fear. Will he tolerate dissent in wartime? Woodrow Wilson locked up peace activists, including Eugene V. Debs. You think Trump won’t? He has been locking people up on flimsier excuses in peacetime. Even presidents not bent on dictatorship have taken measures in wartime that would otherwise be unthinkable.
You can read the whole thing here [GIFT LINK].
Regrets? They have a few.
If only they had been warned.
On Wednesday, NBC News’ Sahil Kapur reported that some Democratic senators now say they regret voting to confirm Kristi Noem as secretary of homeland security. As a reminder, seven of them did: Sens. Tim Kaine, Andy Kim, Elissa Slotkin, Gary Peters, Maggie Hassan, Jeanne Shaheen and John Fetterman.
“I’m very disappointed. I’m very disappointed in her,” Kaine told NBC News. “If I were voting on her today, I definitely wouldn’t vote for her.”
But why the long faces just now? In retrospect, the morality tale ending in a puppy killing should have been a red flag. Or perhaps her lack of qualifications; or the fact that she was already promising mass deportations.
Now, those Democrats sound surprised to find out who she really is. Interesting.
You can tread the whole thing here.
Finally
As Ameica braces for possible acts of terror in retaliation for bombing Iran, a reminder:
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Donald Trump really, really wants a Nobel Prize. The same day that he bombed Iran, he posted this extended rant/whine (NOT A PARODY):
Sunday dog
My wake up call. Auggie says its time to get going.
“A smart and evil man manipulated a stupid and evil man into a war against a fanatical and evil regime.”
As George Conway, so succinctly put it.
Thank you, Charlie, for posting when it was supposed to be a lake weekend for you and Jan and the dogs. I call you by your names because you feel like friends to me. Your voice helps me, even when the news is very grave. 🙏🏻🥺